The Democratic superdelegates are starting to follow the voters -- straight to Barack Obama.
WASHINGTON - The Democratic superdelegates are starting to follow the voters - straight to Barack Obama.
In just the past two weeks as Obama has reeled off 11 straight victories, more than two dozen of them have climbed aboard his presidential campaign, according to a survey by the Associated Press. Hillary Clinton's are beginning to jump ship, abandoning her for Obama or deciding they now are undecided.
The result: He's narrowing her once-commanding lead among these superdelegates, the Democratic officeholders and party officials who attend the national convention and can vote for whomever they choose."
WASHINGTON (AP) - Barack Obama cruised past a fading Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Wisconsin primary and Hawaii caucuses Tuesday night, gaining the upper hand in a Democratic presidential race for the ages.It's not looking good for Hillary. People don't like her going negative.
The twin triumphs made 10 straight for Obama, and left the former first lady in desperate need of a comeback in a race she long commanded as front-runner.
Allocation of the 20 Hawaii delegates was not being calculated until later Wednesday.
"Unlike the 93 Massachusetts delegates whose votes at the convention must reflect the results of the Feb. 5 primary, which Clinton won, the superdelegates are free to pick either candidate. According to Democratic Party rules, superdelegates are under no obligation to follow the will of the voters, as history has shown.
In 1984, Massachusetts superdelegates lined up behind eventual nominee Walter F. Mondale, helping him carry the state at the Democratic National Convention, even though Gary Hart had won the state's primary."
I’ll avoid a false precision in the numbers that follow. There are minor differences among news organizations in projecting delegate allocations in states that have already voted, and in counting preferences among the 796 elected officials and party leaders — the “superdelegates” — who vote according to their choice, not voters’ instruction.He goes on to talk about judgement:
Obama leads Clinton by roughly 70 delegates among about 2,000 chosen so far in primaries and caucuses. (There are still about 1,200 delegates outstanding.) Among the superdelegates, Clinton is ahead by about 100 superdelegates among the 300 who have declared a preference (though any of them can change their mind, so a count of them now is in large measure premature).
"Many of these superdelegates are elected officials. They tend to care about winning in November. The polls suggest Obama matches up better with John McCain. And the polls are merely echoing the judgment of almost every Democratic elected official from a competitive district or a swing state with whom I’ve spoken. They would virtually all prefer Obama at the top of the ticket.
All of this will move the superdelegates to Obama — perhaps as early as just after March 4, or perhaps not until April 22, or perhaps not even until the last match-up on June 7. But the superdelegates will want to avoid a situation in which they could be in the position of seeming to override the popular vote, or of resolving a bitter battle over whether and how to count votes from Florida and Michigan, at the convention.
And there are, as a final resort, two super-superdelegates (so to speak) who would have the clout to help Democrats achieve closure: Al Gore and Nancy Pelosi.
If they stepped forward at the right time, they would earn the gratitude of their party. And they might also enjoy contemplating a derivative effect of their good deed — the fall of the house of Clinton."
"Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend.Good reasen for major media outlet to STOP counting superdelegates in their delegate count.
Some said that they, like the hundreds of uncommitted superdelegates still at stake, might ultimately “go with the flow,” in the words of one, and support the candidate who appears to show the most strength in the primaries to come."
Heading into yesterday's contests, Clinton held a small lead over Obama in the delegate count, 1,055 to 998, according to an Associated Press tally, which includes the results of primaries and caucuses, plus a survey of unpledged superdelegates. But Obama's campaign said last night that after his wins, he leads Clinton by about 70 delegates among those awarded in actual contests.At least I think it's the non superdelegate count. Not sure where the number 70 comes from. That's the problem.
With more than half of the superdelegates unclaimed, both campaigns remain hard at work. And even those whom they believe are secure could move. Arceneaux, the Baton Rouge delegate whose husband was named by Clinton in the 1990s as head of Sallie Mae, the nation's largest student loan company, said she is well aware of the fact that superdelegates are not firmly bound to a candidate until they stand up at the convention in August.
"I always have the option of changing my mind," she said.
"While Clinton may temporarily lead among Super Delegates, it is impossible to know how the majority of Super Delegates will ultimately vote. Many elected officials who are Super Delegates owe favors to the Clintons and lean towards Hillary. On the other hand, many red and purple state elected officials will support Obama because they think he will be more helpful to them in local elections. It is vital to both Clinton and Obama that whoever wins the nomination is viewed as legitimate by the voters."
Of the 121 delegates who will come from Massachusetts, only 93 are apportioned based on the statewide vote.
The other 28 are "unpledged" delegates, free to vote for any of the presidential candidates at the national convention. Sometimes called "super delegates," this group is comprised of the 10 members of the House of Representatives, both U.S. senators, Gov. Deval L. Patrick, three former chairmen of the Democratic National Convention and others.
OBAMA
Governor Deval Patrick
Senator Ted Kennedy
Senator John Kerry
U.S. Reps.
Michael Capuano
William Delahunt
CLINTON
U.S. Reps.
Barney Frank
Richard E. Neal
James P. McGovern
Stephen F. Lynch
Olver, John, Massachusetts, 1st
Tierney, John, Massachusetts, 6th
Tsongas, Niki, Massachusetts, 5th
Mary O'Brien, of Pittsfield, a member of the Democratic State Committee, has served as a delegate to the national convention a half-dozen times since the 1980s. Every time, she said, the bulk of the super delegates have fallen in line with the majority of the state voters and the front-runner has emerged, unscathed by a tough convention fight.We are left with 15 superdelegates that need to be identified. Who are they?
"It would not be a sensible move on the part of the super delegates to light any fires under the electorate who make up their constituencies and, in the face of the majority, go against the raw votes in the commonwealth," she said.